November 2016: And the winner is…

After the Brexit, the election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States comes again to put the predictions of the polling institutes to bad and test the nerves of the financial markets.

The unseemly and unconventional speeches made by Donald Trump during this campaign gave way yesterday morning to a first speech of the future president much more in tune with the “politically correct” and wanting to unify all the Americans. This has helped to curb the expected sharp decline in the markets in the event of a billionaire’s victory. The Cac 40 thus closed this crazy day up 1.49% and the Dow Jones up 1.40%.

Some sectors have already drawn their game in the image of the pharmaceutical sector (+ 3.43% for the American Pharmaceutical Index) which should be less penalized under the Trump era. Others, on the other hand, suffered from this situation, like the automobile that was penalized by its presence in Mexico.

The lower taxes for the wealthier households and businesses, the repatriation of liquidity for American companies carrying out part of their activity outside the national territory and a massive stimulus plan through infrastructure projects are Part of the economic program of the next president. Sectors such as construction, technology and some highly taxed groups such as GAP, Visa or US banks should benefit from this new policy and are therefore to follow closely.

We took advantage of attractive entry points on Apple to be reexposed to the technological values. Our recent purchases from Thalès or Novartis have hailed Trump’s victory by significant increases.

Donald Trump will take up his duties as 45th President of the United States on January 20. This latency period should allow for a better understanding of the implementation of certain measures in its program, which may result in a resurgence of volatility in the markets.

The respite is only short-lived with the next deadline: On 8 December with the Italian referendum which must validate the choices of the policy of Mattéo Renzi. Will the markets still be put to a strain? Will the polling institutes arrive, for once, to better predict the outcome? Answer: In a month…

To follow…

Director of management under mandate
completed at 10h on 10/11/2016